I’m 8-2-1 on the season. May be time to listen up, eh?
Total money wagered: $128.20
Potential winnings: $117.52
***This is the worst kind of week for gambling. There are SO many games I feel are bettable, and almost none I feel confident about. Things got weird this week, some lines I wanted to take weren’t available at one point, I just put in a goofy parlay, but I’m gonna tell you each and every one of my bets. The first five are my actual recommendations, the others are in the interest of full disclosure.
The picks (in bold):
1. Jacksonville +3 @ Tennessee $22 to win $20.00 (already won it yesterday)
Already told you why, but if you didn’t see it, here’s what I said, and boy was I right. “Simply put, I don’t think Bortles can get it done against the Titans’ solid defense, especially in Tennessee. Plus, I love integer lines because if it does come down to a Tennessee field goal win, all I have to do is kiss my sister. And need I say it’s gotta be tough to win in the liver disease color rush jerseys.” This should have been my lock of the week, but I made it my no. 2 for some reason. Wasn’t even close from the get go.
2. Detroit +2 @ Houston: $17.55 to win $16.00
I am just riding Matt Stafford like my name is Kelly Hall (wow, just burnt my finger inserting that link. How does Matt leave the house with that at home?). He has been lights out and the Lions have been very good to me. And as a bonus, Brock Osweiler fucking SUCKS. He’s not good for the Texans or a high potential work in progress, he sucks. And no with Lamar Miller, I like the Lions’ offense to outweigh Texas’ pretty good D and bad O.
3. Oakland pick ’em @ Tampa Bay: $11.00 to win $10.00
Can’t stay away from a pick ’em, especially when Carr is involved. Guy HATES losing. Makes his skin crawl. The Raiders are rollin’, and Tampa is very beatable.
4. New York Jets -3 @ Cleveland: $44.05 to win $41.00
After not having the stones to bet bigger on TNF, this becomes my lock of the week. Obviously Cleveland is bad, but they aren’t as bad as their record indicates. They have come back to make games close. But I don’t think that will happen (at least not within 3) against the Jets this week because of few things. New York has struggled offensively, but if there’s any game wherein it’s very difficult to struggle, it’s the game you play the Browns. With Terelle Pryor on Revis island and the Browns’ backfield against a staunch run defense, Cleveland is just about out of weapons. The Jets have the defense to swallow up anything the Browns throw at them, so need to do is score a bit which shouldn’t be too hard against an 0-7 team.
5. Minnesota -6 @ Chicago: $11.45 to win $11.00
I was a little torn on this one, because the disparity in qualities of the teams just seems so much higher than the actual spread. If you asked me to guess this spread I would have said more like Minnesota -8.5. That usually means Vegas knows something we don’t, but the Vikings’ mental state outweighs that and that’s why I’m taking them. They just got upset and embarrassed, and those teams always come out firing, I think they whoop the Bears to reestablish their dominance.
6. Washington +3 @ Cincinnati (in cheery old London town): $11.00 to win $10.00
The Redskins versus the red hairs @ the red coats. Love it. Both teams have the potential to play high quality football on either side of it, but I think the Bengals just have a bit more. With QB, RB, and defense all being pretty evenly matched on any given day, I think the Bengals better receivers could make the difference.
7. New England -6.5 @ Buffalo: $10.00 to win $9.52
BECAUSE I HAVE A CRUSH ON TOM BRADY AND CAN’T RESIST. THERE. I SAID IT, HAPPY. I HATE YOU MOM AND DAD I CAN’T WAIT TILL I GO AWAY TO COLLEGE.
8. Arizona +2 @ Carolina: $1.15 to win $1.00
Not that confident, but it’s part of a parlay and I can’t bet against a post-tie pissed off Bruce Arians getting points. Can’t do it, won’t do it.